Huge Crossover Vote Skews Republican Primary Results

The outlook: Senator Kip Averitt Calls The Tune

Unpredictably large crossover voting skewed 2010 Republican
Primary results in Brazos Valley districts.

Conservative Democrats fleeing from what they perceive as
intolerably liberal policies on guns, God, health care and
abortion had the unintended effect of upsetting predictable
patterns modeled by the statistical analysis of proprietary
software tailored to gauge the results of races run by
challengers seeking the nomination to succeed incumbents.

The State Senate District 22 campaign showed the most
pronounced effect. Incumbent Kip Averitt, who had announced
in January that he was not seeking the nomination because
his diabetic condition coupled with the complication of
congestive heart disease had turned him into a "walking
heart attack," bested challenger Darren Yancy by a huge
percentage - 60.09 percent to 39.91 of more than 60,000
votes cast. In the incumbent Senator's home county of
McLennan, he beat Yancy by a gap of slightly more than 40
percent - 12,179 to 4,953.

Looking at computerized forecasting models of the primary,
Mr. Yancy declared "Sixty thousand votes total, that's over
20,000 votes more than the software predicted. There's no
question that's crossover vote."

In more arcane races such as the County Republican Chairman
contest, incumbent Joe B. Hinton defeated challenger with
roughly the same 40 percent split, 8,538 votes to the
challenger's 6,048 - 58.5 percent to 41.5.

The former Exxon/Mobil Vice President for Europe, Mr. Hinton
an integral role in a legionary force of tax accountants and
attorneys who dominate the senatorial district which is an
abbreviated version of the Congressional, an area in the
valley of the Brazos River in which flood control and water
resources are paramount to agricultural, transportation and
quality of life issues.

Serving as Tribune to Mr. Averitt's columns, he is in league
with Waco attorney Chris DeCluitt, Proconsul to the Senator
and Presiding Officer of the Brazos River Authority Board of
Directors. An appointee of Texas Governor Rick Perry, Mr.
DeCluitt was the architect of the "Keep Kip" movement.

On the morning after the primary elections, all eyes are on
the Senator. He is chairman of the Senate Natural Resources
Committee, the chief planner of the Texas Water Plan and the
top dock walloper in Central Texas politics. The question:
Will he or won't he accept his nomination and serve in the
capacity for which he has been elected by default? Or will
he refuse to stand in the General Election and force a
special election with candidates chosen by the County party
chairmen of both the Republicans and Democrats?